Finance

AWX Move Probability $2.50 +0.03 (+1.2%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
26.8%
Stock touched +5.0% ($2.62) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 7 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
17.3%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.55x
You are 1.6x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±25.4%
$1.86 — $3.14

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-87.0% to -80.2%: 12 occurrences (2.4%) -83.6% -80.2% to -73.4%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) -73.4% to -66.7%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -66.7% to -59.9%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -63.3% -59.9% to -53.1%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -53.1% to -46.4%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -46.4% to -39.6%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -43.0% -39.6% to -32.8%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -32.8% to -26.1%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -26.1% to -19.3%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) -22.7% -19.3% to -12.6%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) -12.6% to -5.8%: 54 occurrences (10.6%) -5.8% to +1.0%: 261 occurrences (51.4%) -2.4% +1.0% to +7.7%: 114 occurrences (22.4%) +7.7% to +14.5%: 33 occurrences (6.5%) +14.5% to +21.3%: 18 occurrences (3.5%) 17.9%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 26.8% 17.3% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 98.5% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-16.9) and kurtosis (331.75).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 84.8% 42.4% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 32.4% 23.5% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (170 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 107.9%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 26.9%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 24.4%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-75% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -0.6%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +7.2%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -8.4%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +21.3%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -87.0%