Finance

AVNW Move Probability $19.66 +0.21 (+1.1%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
65.4%
Stock touched +5.0% ($20.64) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 4 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
36.4%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.79x
You are 1.8x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±19.1%
$15.91 — $23.40

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-40.9% to -29.1%: 11 occurrences (2.2%) -35.0% -29.1% to -17.3%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) -17.3% to -5.5%: 88 occurrences (17.3%) -5.5% to +6.3%: 235 occurrences (46.3%) 0.4% +6.3% to +18.1%: 119 occurrences (23.4%) +18.1% to +29.9%: 30 occurrences (5.9%) +29.9% to +41.7%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 35.8% +41.7% to +53.5%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +53.5% to +65.3%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +65.3% to +77.1%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 71.2% +77.1% to +88.9%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +88.9% to +100.7%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +100.7% to +112.5%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 106.6% +112.5% to +124.3%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +124.3% to +136.1%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) +136.1% to +147.9%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) 142.0%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 65.4% 36.4% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 0.0% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (7.2) and kurtosis (137.82).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 79.8% 39.9% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 69.0% 35.3% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (255 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 80.9%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 33.4%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 33.8%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-59% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +1.9%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +16.6%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -11.7%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +147.9%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -40.9%