Finance

AVIR Move Probability $4.07 -0.39 (-8.7%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
69.9%
Stock touched +5.0% ($4.27) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 4 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
34.8%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.01x
You are 2.0x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±11.2%
$3.61 — $4.53

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-25.8% to -21.9%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) -23.9% -21.9% to -18.0%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) -18.0% to -14.1%: 16 occurrences (3.1%) -14.1% to -10.2%: 28 occurrences (5.5%) -12.2% -10.2% to -6.3%: 53 occurrences (10.4%) -6.3% to -2.4%: 80 occurrences (15.7%) -2.4% to +1.5%: 78 occurrences (15.4%) -0.5% +1.5% to +5.4%: 65 occurrences (12.8%) +5.4% to +9.3%: 66 occurrences (13.0%) +9.3% to +13.2%: 41 occurrences (8.1%) 11.2% +13.2% to +17.1%: 36 occurrences (7.1%) +17.1% to +21.0%: 14 occurrences (2.8%) +21.0% to +24.9%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) 22.9% +24.9% to +28.8%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +28.8% to +32.7%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +32.7% to +36.6%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) 34.6%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 69.9% 34.8% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 28.7% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.55) and kurtosis (4.3).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 66.4% 33.2% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 67.0% 31.0% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (400 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 47.6%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 46.4%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 41.1%
  • Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.7%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +14.3%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -10.5%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +36.6%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -25.8%