Finance

ATXS Move Probability $12.56 +0.07 (+0.6%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
62.0%
Stock touched +5.0% ($13.19) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
29.3%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.12x
You are 2.1x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±16.2%
$10.52 — $14.60

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 321 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-01-23). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-40.6% to -33.8%: 5 occurrences (1.6%) -37.2% -33.8% to -27.0%: 5 occurrences (1.6%) -27.0% to -20.2%: 13 occurrences (4.0%) -20.2% to -13.5%: 26 occurrences (8.1%) -16.8% -13.5% to -6.7%: 41 occurrences (12.8%) -6.7% to +0.1%: 67 occurrences (20.9%) +0.1% to +6.9%: 79 occurrences (24.6%) 3.5% +6.9% to +13.7%: 35 occurrences (10.9%) +13.7% to +20.4%: 18 occurrences (5.6%) +20.4% to +27.2%: 5 occurrences (1.6%) 23.8% +27.2% to +34.0%: 6 occurrences (1.9%) +34.0% to +40.8%: 3 occurrences (0.9%) +40.8% to +47.5%: 2 occurrences (0.6%) 44.1% +47.5% to +54.3%: 6 occurrences (1.9%) +54.3% to +61.1%: 2 occurrences (0.6%) +61.1% to +67.9%: 8 occurrences (2.5%) 64.5%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 62.0% 29.3% Model-free reality across 321 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 21.7% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.94) and kurtosis (10.32).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 76.4% 38.2% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 37.1% 2.9% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (35 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 68.9%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 19.1%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 50.1%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-72% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.2%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +20.3%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -17.2%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +67.9%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -40.6%