Finance

ATXI Move Probability $0.42 -0.42 (-50.4%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

← Back to ATXI Options chain →
Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
23.0%
Stock touched +5.0% ($0.44) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
9.2%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.48x
You are 2.5x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±29.4%
$0.29 — $0.54

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 357 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-03-17). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-39.1% to -18.1%: 30 occurrences (8.4%) -28.6% -18.1% to +2.9%: 291 occurrences (81.5%) +2.9% to +23.9%: 20 occurrences (5.6%) +23.9% to +44.9%: 2 occurrences (0.6%) 34.4% +44.9% to +65.9%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +65.9% to +86.9%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +86.9% to +107.9%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 97.4% +107.9% to +129.0%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +129.0% to +150.0%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +150.0% to +171.0%: 3 occurrences (0.8%) 160.5% +171.0% to +192.0%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +192.0% to +213.0%: 4 occurrences (1.1%) +213.0% to +234.0%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 223.5% +234.0% to +255.0%: 5 occurrences (1.4%) +255.0% to +276.0%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +276.0% to +297.0%: 2 occurrences (0.6%) 286.5%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 23.0% 9.2% Model-free reality across 357 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 0.2% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (14.58) and kurtosis (257.18).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 86.8% 43.4% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 0.0% 0.0% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (217 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 124.9%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 0.0%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 32.0%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-100% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.0%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +2.8%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -13.2%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +297.0%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -39.1%