Finance

ATO Move Probability $166.78 -0.32 (-0.2%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
24.6%
Stock touched +5.0% ($175.12) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 9 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
12.6%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.95x
You are 1.9x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±3.9%
$160.35 — $173.21

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-9.9% to -8.7%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) -9.3% -8.7% to -7.5%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -7.5% to -6.3%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) -6.3% to -5.0%: 17 occurrences (3.3%) -5.7% -5.0% to -3.8%: 32 occurrences (6.3%) -3.8% to -2.6%: 44 occurrences (8.7%) -2.6% to -1.4%: 47 occurrences (9.3%) -2.0% -1.4% to -0.1%: 62 occurrences (12.2%) -0.1% to +1.1%: 72 occurrences (14.2%) +1.1% to +2.3%: 61 occurrences (12.0%) 1.7% +2.3% to +3.5%: 50 occurrences (9.8%) +3.5% to +4.8%: 43 occurrences (8.5%) +4.8% to +6.0%: 23 occurrences (4.5%) 5.4% +6.0% to +7.2%: 23 occurrences (4.5%) +7.2% to +8.4%: 13 occurrences (2.6%) +8.4% to +9.6%: 11 occurrences (2.2%) 9.0%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 24.6% 12.6% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 8.5% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.32) and kurtosis (1.1).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 20.6% 10.3% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 28.5% 16.2% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (291 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 16.4%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 12.3%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 13.9%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-25% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.5%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +5.6%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -4.1%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +9.6%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -9.9%