Finance

ASIX Move Probability $15.40 -0.44 (-2.8%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
53.9%
Stock touched +5.0% ($16.17) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 4 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
26.6%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.03x
You are 2.0x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±10.8%
$13.74 — $17.06

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-27.0% to -23.3%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) -25.1% -23.3% to -19.6%: 12 occurrences (2.4%) -19.6% to -15.9%: 20 occurrences (3.9%) -15.9% to -12.1%: 34 occurrences (6.7%) -14.0% -12.1% to -8.4%: 52 occurrences (10.2%) -8.4% to -4.7%: 68 occurrences (13.4%) -4.7% to -1.0%: 53 occurrences (10.4%) -2.9% -1.0% to +2.7%: 83 occurrences (16.3%) +2.7% to +6.4%: 71 occurrences (14.0%) +6.4% to +10.1%: 36 occurrences (7.1%) 8.3% +10.1% to +13.8%: 34 occurrences (6.7%) +13.8% to +17.6%: 25 occurrences (4.9%) +17.6% to +21.3%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) 19.4% +21.3% to +25.0%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +25.0% to +28.7%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +28.7% to +32.4%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 30.6%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 53.9% 26.6% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 21.6% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.84) and kurtosis (9.21).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 65.1% 32.6% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 41.4% 18.0% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (239 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 45.8%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 28.2%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 29.1%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-38% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -0.6%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +11.8%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -14.1%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +32.4%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -27.0%