Finance

ASH Move Probability $72.21 +0.51 (+0.7%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
50.2%
Stock touched +5.0% ($75.82) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 5 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
21.5%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.34x
You are 2.3x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±8.8%
$65.83 — $78.59

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-20.8% to -17.8%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) -19.3% -17.8% to -14.8%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) -14.8% to -11.9%: 13 occurrences (2.6%) -11.9% to -8.9%: 28 occurrences (5.5%) -10.4% -8.9% to -5.9%: 50 occurrences (9.8%) -5.9% to -3.0%: 60 occurrences (11.8%) -3.0% to -0.0%: 85 occurrences (16.7%) -1.5% -0.0% to +3.0%: 110 occurrences (21.7%) +3.0% to +5.9%: 62 occurrences (12.2%) +5.9% to +8.9%: 32 occurrences (6.3%) 7.4% +8.9% to +11.9%: 21 occurrences (4.1%) +11.9% to +14.8%: 16 occurrences (3.1%) +14.8% to +17.8%: 12 occurrences (2.4%) 16.3% +17.8% to +20.8%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +20.8% to +23.7%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +23.7% to +26.7%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 25.2%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 50.2% 21.5% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 18.5% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.24) and kurtosis (6.07).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 58.1% 29.0% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 32.2% 8.9% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (90 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 37.5%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 19.0%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 26.7%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-49% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.1%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +9.1%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -9.4%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +26.7%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -20.8%