Finance

ARTL Move Probability $2.58 -0.08 (-3.0%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

← Back to ARTL Options chain →
Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
59.3%
Stock touched +5.0% ($2.71) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
23.6%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.51x
You are 2.5x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±40.2%
$1.54 — $3.62

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-62.9% to -36.7%: 79 occurrences (15.6%) -49.8% -36.7% to -10.5%: 156 occurrences (30.7%) -10.5% to +15.6%: 207 occurrences (40.7%) +15.6% to +41.8%: 33 occurrences (6.5%) 28.7% +41.8% to +68.0%: 13 occurrences (2.6%) +68.0% to +94.2%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +94.2% to +120.4%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) 107.3% +120.4% to +146.6%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) +146.6% to +172.8%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +172.8% to +198.9%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 185.8% +198.9% to +225.1%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +225.1% to +251.3%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +251.3% to +277.5%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 264.4% +277.5% to +303.7%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +303.7% to +329.9%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +329.9% to +356.0%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 342.9%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 59.3% 23.6% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 13.5% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (2.99) and kurtosis (42.36).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 90.3% 45.2% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 49.2% 14.5% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (193 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 170.4%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 121.2%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 102.6%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-29% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -8.5%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +20.0%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -41.7%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +356.0%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -62.9%