Finance

ARRY Move Probability $3.42 +0.07 (+2.1%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
75.2%
Stock touched +5.0% ($3.59) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 2 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
38.0%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.98x
You are 2.0x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±42.7%
$1.96 — $4.88

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-33.4% to +20.4%: 430 occurrences (84.6%) -6.5% +20.4% to +74.1%: 48 occurrences (9.4%) +74.1% to +127.9%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) +127.9% to +181.7%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) 154.8% +181.7% to +235.5%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +235.5% to +289.2%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +289.2% to +343.0%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 316.1% +343.0% to +396.8%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +396.8% to +450.6%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +450.6% to +504.3%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 477.4% +504.3% to +558.1%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +558.1% to +611.9%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +611.9% to +665.6%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 638.8% +665.6% to +719.4%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +719.4% to +773.2%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +773.2% to +827.0%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) 800.1%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 75.2% 38.0% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 0.1% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (14.35) and kurtosis (266.16).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 90.9% 45.4% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 78.8% 39.6% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (283 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 181.0%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 61.1%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 69.4%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-66% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -0.6%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +36.6%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -17.6%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +827.0%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -33.4%