Finance

ARQ Move Probability $1.83 -0.01 (-0.8%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

← Back to ARQ Options chain →
Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
60.2%
Stock touched +5.0% ($1.92) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
31.3%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.92x
You are 1.9x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±19.0%
$1.48 — $2.18

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-52.6% to -46.1%: 13 occurrences (2.6%) -49.3% -46.1% to -39.5%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) -39.5% to -33.0%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) -33.0% to -26.4%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -29.7% -26.4% to -19.9%: 11 occurrences (2.2%) -19.9% to -13.3%: 35 occurrences (6.9%) -13.3% to -6.8%: 98 occurrences (19.3%) -10.1% -6.8% to -0.2%: 116 occurrences (22.8%) -0.2% to +6.3%: 80 occurrences (15.7%) +6.3% to +12.9%: 57 occurrences (11.2%) 9.6% +12.9% to +19.4%: 43 occurrences (8.5%) +19.4% to +26.0%: 14 occurrences (2.8%) +26.0% to +32.5%: 18 occurrences (3.5%) 29.2% +32.5% to +39.0%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) +39.0% to +45.6%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +45.6% to +52.1%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 48.9%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 60.2% 31.3% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 27.2% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-5.14) and kurtosis (65.85).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 79.7% 39.9% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 52.7% 25.7% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (311 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 80.6%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 43.5%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 48.6%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-46% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -1.8%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +17.8%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -16.7%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +52.1%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -52.6%