Finance

ARI Move Probability $6.34 -0.02 (-0.2%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
26.8%
Stock touched +5.0% ($6.66) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 8 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
14.6%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.84x
You are 1.8x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±5.3%
$6.01 — $6.68

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-17.5% to -15.2%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) -16.3% -15.2% to -12.9%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) -12.9% to -10.6%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) -10.6% to -8.3%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) -9.5% -8.3% to -6.0%: 12 occurrences (2.4%) -6.0% to -3.7%: 33 occurrences (6.5%) -3.7% to -1.4%: 83 occurrences (16.3%) -2.6% -1.4% to +0.8%: 144 occurrences (28.3%) +0.8% to +3.1%: 97 occurrences (19.1%) +3.1% to +5.4%: 55 occurrences (10.8%) 4.3% +5.4% to +7.7%: 27 occurrences (5.3%) +7.7% to +10.0%: 15 occurrences (3.0%) +10.0% to +12.3%: 14 occurrences (2.8%) 11.1% +12.3% to +14.6%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) +14.6% to +16.9%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +16.9% to +19.2%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) 18.0%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 26.8% 14.6% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 8.8% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.69) and kurtosis (5.49).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 35.6% 17.8% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 23.3% 11.5% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (279 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 22.4%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 15.0%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 18.6%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-33% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.2%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +6.5%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -4.2%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +19.2%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -17.5%