Finance

ARHS Move Probability $10.95 +0.20 (+1.9%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
66.1%
Stock touched +5.0% ($11.50) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
37.2%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.78x
You are 1.8x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±14.4%
$9.37 — $12.53

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-30.1% to -25.6%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) -27.9% -25.6% to -21.2%: 21 occurrences (4.1%) -21.2% to -16.7%: 30 occurrences (5.9%) -16.7% to -12.2%: 34 occurrences (6.7%) -14.5% -12.2% to -7.8%: 58 occurrences (11.4%) -7.8% to -3.3%: 56 occurrences (11.0%) -3.3% to +1.2%: 64 occurrences (12.6%) -1.1% +1.2% to +5.6%: 55 occurrences (10.8%) +5.6% to +10.1%: 50 occurrences (9.8%) +10.1% to +14.6%: 51 occurrences (10.0%) 12.3% +14.6% to +19.0%: 17 occurrences (3.3%) +19.0% to +23.5%: 23 occurrences (4.5%) +23.5% to +28.0%: 12 occurrences (2.4%) 25.7% +28.0% to +32.5%: 12 occurrences (2.4%) +32.5% to +36.9%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) +36.9% to +41.4%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) 39.2%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 66.1% 37.2% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 30.1% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.05) and kurtosis (4.32).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 73.5% 36.7% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 73.2% 45.2% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (336 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 61.1%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 48.6%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 47.6%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-21% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.1%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +20.4%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -18.1%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +41.4%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -30.1%