Finance

ARDT Move Probability $12.07 -0.05 (-0.4%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
56.3%
Stock touched +5.0% ($12.67) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 4 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
28.1%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.00x
You are 2.0x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±11.0%
$10.75 — $13.39

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-29.6% to -26.1%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -27.8% -26.1% to -22.6%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) -22.6% to -19.2%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -19.2% to -15.7%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) -17.4% -15.7% to -12.2%: 17 occurrences (3.3%) -12.2% to -8.8%: 39 occurrences (7.7%) -8.8% to -5.3%: 56 occurrences (11.0%) -7.0% -5.3% to -1.8%: 74 occurrences (14.6%) -1.8% to +1.6%: 98 occurrences (19.3%) +1.6% to +5.1%: 66 occurrences (13.0%) 3.4% +5.1% to +8.6%: 49 occurrences (9.6%) +8.6% to +12.0%: 37 occurrences (7.3%) +12.0% to +15.5%: 26 occurrences (5.1%) 13.8% +15.5% to +19.0%: 13 occurrences (2.6%) +19.0% to +22.4%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) +22.4% to +25.9%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) 24.2%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 56.3% 28.1% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 30.6% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.93) and kurtosis (4.53).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 65.6% 32.8% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 41.9% 21.3% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (155 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 46.5%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 27.3%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 35.2%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-41% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -0.4%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +12.3%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -10.7%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +25.9%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -29.6%