Finance

ARAY Move Probability $0.13 -0.01 (-6.8%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
67.9%
Stock touched +5.0% ($0.14) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
27.4%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.48x
You are 2.5x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±21.7%
$0.11 — $0.16

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-49.7% to -43.7%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -46.7% -43.7% to -37.7%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -37.7% to -31.6%: 17 occurrences (3.3%) -31.6% to -25.6%: 26 occurrences (5.1%) -28.6% -25.6% to -19.6%: 40 occurrences (7.9%) -19.6% to -13.6%: 61 occurrences (12.0%) -13.6% to -7.5%: 51 occurrences (10.0%) -10.5% -7.5% to -1.5%: 76 occurrences (15.0%) -1.5% to +4.5%: 83 occurrences (16.3%) +4.5% to +10.6%: 56 occurrences (11.0%) 7.5% +10.6% to +16.6%: 45 occurrences (8.9%) +16.6% to +22.6%: 29 occurrences (5.7%) +22.6% to +28.6%: 11 occurrences (2.2%) 25.6% +28.6% to +34.7%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +34.7% to +40.7%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +40.7% to +46.7%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 43.7%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 67.9% 27.4% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 31.1% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.68) and kurtosis (14.03).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 82.2% 41.1% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 73.7% 19.7% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (76 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 92.0%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 158.9%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 67.2%
  • Vol Trend: Expanded (+73% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -3.2%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +15.7%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -25.2%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +46.7%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -49.7%