Finance

AQST Move Probability $4.08 +0.02 (+0.5%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
72.8%
Stock touched +5.0% ($4.28) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
34.4%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.11x
You are 2.1x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±18.1%
$3.34 — $4.81

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-49.8% to -43.4%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) -46.6% -43.4% to -36.9%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) -36.9% to -30.5%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) -30.5% to -24.0%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) -27.2% -24.0% to -17.6%: 33 occurrences (6.5%) -17.6% to -11.1%: 47 occurrences (9.3%) -11.1% to -4.6%: 80 occurrences (15.7%) -7.9% -4.6% to +1.8%: 116 occurrences (22.8%) +1.8% to +8.3%: 63 occurrences (12.4%) +8.3% to +14.7%: 47 occurrences (9.3%) 11.5% +14.7% to +21.2%: 40 occurrences (7.9%) +21.2% to +27.7%: 33 occurrences (6.5%) +27.7% to +34.1%: 11 occurrences (2.2%) 30.9% +34.1% to +40.6%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) +40.6% to +47.0%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +47.0% to +53.5%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) 50.3%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 72.8% 34.4% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 21.0% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.82) and kurtosis (21.01).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 78.8% 39.4% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 66.2% 25.3% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (367 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 76.9%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 63.9%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 57.4%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-17% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -0.1%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +22.8%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -17.6%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +53.5%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -49.8%