Finance

APTO Move Probability $1.55 -1.76 (-53.2%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
56.4%
Stock touched +5.0% ($1.63) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
29.1%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.94x
You are 1.9x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±39.6%
$0.94 — $2.16

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 117 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2025-04-01). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-56.5% to -49.9%: 12 occurrences (10.3%) -53.2% -49.9% to -43.2%: 4 occurrences (3.4%) -43.2% to -36.5%: 4 occurrences (3.4%) -36.5% to -29.8%: 7 occurrences (6.0%) -33.2% -29.8% to -23.2%: 3 occurrences (2.6%) -23.2% to -16.5%: 7 occurrences (6.0%) -16.5% to -9.8%: 21 occurrences (17.9%) -13.2% -9.8% to -3.2%: 9 occurrences (7.7%) -3.2% to +3.5%: 10 occurrences (8.5%) +3.5% to +10.2%: 20 occurrences (17.1%) 6.8% +10.2% to +16.9%: 7 occurrences (6.0%) +16.9% to +23.5%: 8 occurrences (6.8%) +23.5% to +30.2%: 3 occurrences (2.6%) 26.9% +30.2% to +36.9%: 1 occurrences (0.9%) +36.9% to +43.5%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +43.5% to +50.2%: 1 occurrences (0.9%) 46.9%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 56.4% 29.1% Model-free reality across 117 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 48.2% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-2.03) and kurtosis (21.16).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 90.2% 45.1% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 38.2% 26.5% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (34 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 167.9%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 283.9%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 81.5%
  • Vol Trend: Expanded (+69% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -9.5%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +17.6%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -47.0%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +50.2%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -56.5%