Finance

APP Move Probability $267.93 -4.48 (-1.6%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
76.8%
Stock touched +5.0% ($281.33) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
45.1%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.70x
You are 1.7x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±19.3%
$216.24 — $319.62

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-52.0% to -41.9%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -47.0% -41.9% to -31.8%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) -31.8% to -21.7%: 36 occurrences (7.1%) -21.7% to -11.6%: 76 occurrences (15.0%) -16.7% -11.6% to -1.5%: 86 occurrences (16.9%) -1.5% to +8.6%: 115 occurrences (22.6%) +8.6% to +18.7%: 86 occurrences (16.9%) 13.6% +18.7% to +28.8%: 50 occurrences (9.8%) +28.8% to +38.9%: 30 occurrences (5.9%) +38.9% to +49.0%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) 43.9% +49.0% to +59.1%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +59.1% to +69.2%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +69.2% to +79.3%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) 74.2% +79.3% to +89.4%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +89.4% to +99.5%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +99.5% to +109.6%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 104.5%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 76.8% 45.1% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 30.1% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.03) and kurtosis (8.51).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 80.0% 40.0% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 73.2% 42.4% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (205 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 81.8%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 46.4%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 61.4%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-43% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +2.7%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +28.6%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -20.4%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +109.6%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -52.0%