Finance

APEI Move Probability $47.74 -0.90 (-1.9%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
71.7%
Stock touched +5.0% ($50.13) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 5 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
41.5%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.73x
You are 1.7x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±10.7%
$42.62 — $52.86

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-17.8% to -14.2%: 12 occurrences (2.4%) -16.0% -14.2% to -10.6%: 14 occurrences (2.8%) -10.6% to -6.9%: 31 occurrences (6.1%) -6.9% to -3.3%: 55 occurrences (10.8%) -5.1% -3.3% to +0.3%: 70 occurrences (13.8%) +0.3% to +4.0%: 96 occurrences (18.9%) +4.0% to +7.6%: 79 occurrences (15.6%) 5.8% +7.6% to +11.2%: 55 occurrences (10.8%) +11.2% to +14.9%: 28 occurrences (5.5%) +14.9% to +18.5%: 24 occurrences (4.7%) 16.7% +18.5% to +22.1%: 23 occurrences (4.5%) +22.1% to +25.8%: 12 occurrences (2.4%) +25.8% to +29.4%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) 27.6% +29.4% to +33.0%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +33.0% to +36.7%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +36.7% to +40.3%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 38.5%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 71.7% 41.5% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 13.9% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.89) and kurtosis (10.53).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 64.9% 32.4% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 65.8% 39.8% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (231 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 45.5%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 28.9%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 34.3%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-36% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +3.0%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +17.4%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -7.8%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +40.3%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -17.8%