Finance

ALEC Move Probability $1.87 -0.09 (-4.6%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

← Back to ALEC Options chain →
Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
84.8%
Stock touched +5.0% ($1.96) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 2 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
40.0%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.12x
You are 2.1x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±24.6%
$1.41 — $2.33

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 487 historical windows (2024-10-22 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-61.3% to -53.4%: 12 occurrences (2.5%) -57.4% -53.4% to -45.5%: 13 occurrences (2.7%) -45.5% to -37.6%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) -37.6% to -29.7%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) -33.7% -29.7% to -21.8%: 38 occurrences (7.8%) -21.8% to -13.9%: 54 occurrences (11.1%) -13.9% to -6.0%: 52 occurrences (10.7%) -10.0% -6.0% to +1.9%: 77 occurrences (15.8%) +1.9% to +9.8%: 76 occurrences (15.6%) +9.8% to +17.6%: 45 occurrences (9.2%) 13.7% +17.6% to +25.5%: 44 occurrences (9.0%) +25.5% to +33.4%: 35 occurrences (7.2%) +33.4% to +41.3%: 16 occurrences (3.3%) 37.4% +41.3% to +49.2%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +49.2% to +57.1%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) +57.1% to +65.0%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) 61.1%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 84.8% 40.0% Model-free reality across 487 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 35.3% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-2.33) and kurtosis (28.55).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 84.3% 42.1% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 84.7% 40.3% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (347 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 104.5%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 80.1%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 87.5%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-23% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.8%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +28.9%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -25.5%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +65.0%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -61.3%