Finance

AIV Move Probability $1.61 -0.05 (-3.3%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

← Back to AIV Options chain →
Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
20.9%
Stock touched +5.0% ($1.70) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 7 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
10.4%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.00x
You are 2.0x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±5.7%
$1.52 — $1.71

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-23.3% to -20.6%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -21.9% -20.6% to -17.9%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) -17.9% to -15.2%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) -15.2% to -12.5%: 11 occurrences (2.2%) -13.9% -12.5% to -9.8%: 20 occurrences (3.9%) -9.8% to -7.1%: 21 occurrences (4.1%) -7.1% to -4.4%: 34 occurrences (6.7%) -5.8% -4.4% to -1.7%: 93 occurrences (18.3%) -1.7% to +0.9%: 157 occurrences (30.9%) +0.9% to +3.6%: 68 occurrences (13.4%) 2.3% +3.6% to +6.3%: 52 occurrences (10.2%) +6.3% to +9.0%: 23 occurrences (4.5%) +9.0% to +11.7%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 10.4% +11.7% to +14.4%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +14.4% to +17.1%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +17.1% to +19.8%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 18.4%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 20.9% 10.4% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 12.2% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.07) and kurtosis (3.79).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 39.1% 19.6% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 35.3% 23.7% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (156 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 24.2%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 35.1%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 21.3%
  • Vol Trend: Expanded (+45% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -0.8%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +5.1%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -9.2%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +19.8%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -23.3%