Finance

AIRS Move Probability $1.28 -0.03 (-2.3%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
78.9%
Stock touched +5.0% ($1.34) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 2 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
41.1%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.92x
You are 1.9x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±27.8%
$0.92 — $1.64

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-66.1% to -55.5%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) -60.8% -55.5% to -45.0%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) -45.0% to -34.4%: 42 occurrences (8.3%) -34.4% to -23.9%: 59 occurrences (11.6%) -29.1% -23.9% to -13.3%: 51 occurrences (10.0%) -13.3% to -2.7%: 71 occurrences (14.0%) -2.7% to +7.8%: 81 occurrences (15.9%) 2.6% +7.8% to +18.4%: 60 occurrences (11.8%) +18.4% to +29.0%: 42 occurrences (8.3%) +29.0% to +39.5%: 30 occurrences (5.9%) 34.2% +39.5% to +50.1%: 15 occurrences (3.0%) +50.1% to +60.6%: 15 occurrences (3.0%) +60.6% to +71.2%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) 65.9% +71.2% to +81.8%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) +81.8% to +92.3%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +92.3% to +102.9%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) 97.6%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 78.9% 41.1% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 40.8% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-1.41) and kurtosis (15.33).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 86.1% 43.0% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 79.6% 40.9% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (313 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 117.9%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 77.4%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 88.3%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-34% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -0.6%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +43.9%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -35.3%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +102.9%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -66.1%