Finance

AIRG Move Probability $4.07 +0.08 (+1.9%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
43.7%
Stock touched +5.0% ($4.27) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 4 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
24.6%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.78x
You are 1.8x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±13.4%
$3.52 — $4.61

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-37.6% to -32.1%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) -34.9% -32.1% to -26.6%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) -26.6% to -21.1%: 29 occurrences (5.7%) -21.1% to -15.6%: 24 occurrences (4.7%) -18.3% -15.6% to -10.1%: 37 occurrences (7.3%) -10.1% to -4.6%: 74 occurrences (14.6%) -4.6% to +0.9%: 133 occurrences (26.2%) -1.8% +0.9% to +6.4%: 86 occurrences (16.9%) +6.4% to +11.9%: 47 occurrences (9.3%) +11.9% to +17.4%: 24 occurrences (4.7%) 14.7% +17.4% to +22.9%: 24 occurrences (4.7%) +22.9% to +28.4%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) +28.4% to +33.9%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) 31.2% +33.9% to +39.4%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +39.4% to +45.0%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +45.0% to +50.5%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 47.7%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 43.7% 24.6% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 27.6% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.0) and kurtosis (5.3).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 71.6% 35.8% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 44.3% 29.7% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (158 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 56.9%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 86.8%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 30.0%
  • Vol Trend: Expanded (+53% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -1.1%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +14.8%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -19.8%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +50.5%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -37.6%