Finance

AGM Move Probability $200.02 -0.55 (-0.3%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
43.9%
Stock touched +5.0% ($210.02) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 6 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
25.4%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.73x
You are 1.7x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±7.3%
$185.37 — $214.67

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-16.7% to -14.1%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) -15.4% -14.1% to -11.5%: 22 occurrences (4.3%) -11.5% to -8.9%: 30 occurrences (5.9%) -8.9% to -6.2%: 44 occurrences (8.7%) -7.5% -6.2% to -3.6%: 35 occurrences (6.9%) -3.6% to -1.0%: 61 occurrences (12.0%) -1.0% to +1.6%: 71 occurrences (14.0%) 0.3% +1.6% to +4.3%: 87 occurrences (17.1%) +4.3% to +6.9%: 48 occurrences (9.4%) +6.9% to +9.5%: 32 occurrences (6.3%) 8.2% +9.5% to +12.1%: 23 occurrences (4.5%) +12.1% to +14.7%: 29 occurrences (5.7%) +14.7% to +17.4%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) 16.1% +17.4% to +20.0%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) +20.0% to +22.6%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +22.6% to +25.2%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 23.9%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 43.9% 25.4% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 10.1% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.82) and kurtosis (10.37).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 50.5% 25.3% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 40.7% 22.8% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (337 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 31.1%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 24.0%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 14.4%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-23% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +1.1%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +10.9%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -9.7%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +25.2%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -16.7%