Finance

ADPT Move Probability $25.34 +0.91 (+3.7%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
84.3%
Stock touched +5.0% ($26.61) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
51.4%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.64x
You are 1.6x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±17.0%
$21.03 — $29.65

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-23.3% to -18.7%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) -21.0% -18.7% to -14.2%: 31 occurrences (6.1%) -14.2% to -9.6%: 37 occurrences (7.3%) -9.6% to -5.1%: 46 occurrences (9.1%) -7.3% -5.1% to -0.5%: 51 occurrences (10.0%) -0.5% to +4.0%: 66 occurrences (13.0%) +4.0% to +8.6%: 67 occurrences (13.2%) 6.3% +8.6% to +13.1%: 64 occurrences (12.6%) +13.1% to +17.7%: 51 occurrences (10.0%) +17.7% to +22.2%: 42 occurrences (8.3%) 20.0% +22.2% to +26.8%: 18 occurrences (3.5%) +26.8% to +31.3%: 13 occurrences (2.6%) +31.3% to +35.9%: 11 occurrences (2.2%) 33.6% +35.9% to +40.5%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +40.5% to +45.0%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +45.0% to +49.6%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 47.3%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 84.3% 51.4% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 28.7% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.92) and kurtosis (4.78).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 77.4% 38.7% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 83.9% 47.5% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (341 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 72.1%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 63.2%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 62.0%
  • Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +5.3%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +21.9%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -11.7%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +49.6%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -23.3%