Finance

ACAD Move Probability $20.20 -0.25 (-1.2%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
56.3%
Stock touched +5.0% ($21.21) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 5 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
31.7%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.78x
You are 1.8x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±10.3%
$18.11 — $22.29

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-28.5% to -23.5%: 13 occurrences (2.6%) -26.0% -23.5% to -18.4%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) -18.4% to -13.3%: 24 occurrences (4.7%) -13.3% to -8.2%: 46 occurrences (9.1%) -10.8% -8.2% to -3.2%: 69 occurrences (13.6%) -3.2% to +1.9%: 132 occurrences (26.0%) +1.9% to +7.0%: 96 occurrences (18.9%) 4.4% +7.0% to +12.0%: 63 occurrences (12.4%) +12.0% to +17.1%: 30 occurrences (5.9%) +17.1% to +22.2%: 14 occurrences (2.8%) 19.6% +22.2% to +27.2%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) +27.2% to +32.3%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +32.3% to +37.4%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 34.9% +37.4% to +42.5%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +42.5% to +47.5%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +47.5% to +52.6%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) 50.1%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 56.3% 31.7% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 11.8% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (1.23) and kurtosis (11.81).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 63.7% 31.8% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 61.5% 37.5% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (200 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 43.8%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 61.8%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 36.8%
  • Vol Trend: Expanded (+41% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.8%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +13.8%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -12.1%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +52.6%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -28.5%