Finance

AAON Move Probability $75.24 +1.34 (+1.8%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
67.1%
Stock touched +5.0% ($79.00) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 4 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
33.5%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.01x
You are 2.0x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±14.0%
$64.67 — $85.81

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-35.1% to -29.6%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) -32.4% -29.6% to -24.2%: 14 occurrences (2.8%) -24.2% to -18.7%: 22 occurrences (4.3%) -18.7% to -13.3%: 42 occurrences (8.3%) -16.0% -13.3% to -7.8%: 71 occurrences (14.0%) -7.8% to -2.4%: 62 occurrences (12.2%) -2.4% to +3.1%: 94 occurrences (18.5%) 0.3% +3.1% to +8.5%: 70 occurrences (13.8%) +8.5% to +14.0%: 52 occurrences (10.2%) +14.0% to +19.4%: 36 occurrences (7.1%) 16.7% +19.4% to +24.9%: 16 occurrences (3.1%) +24.9% to +30.3%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) +30.3% to +35.8%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 33.0% +35.8% to +41.2%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +41.2% to +46.7%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) +46.7% to +52.1%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) 49.4%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 67.1% 33.5% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 20.9% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.03) and kurtosis (11.2).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 72.8% 36.4% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 68.8% 37.3% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (362 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 59.6%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 49.7%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 44.0%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-17% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.1%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +17.7%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -17.4%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +52.1%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -35.1%