Finance

HLT Move Probability $362.25 +3.00 (+0.8%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
3.7%
Stock touched +5.0% ($380.36) at least once during 2 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 2 of 2
Expiration Close Probability
1.7%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 2-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.11x
You are 2.1x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±2.2%
$354.35 — $370.15

Historical 2-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 2-day percentage returns over 520 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-9.7% to -8.7%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -9.2% -8.7% to -7.6%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -7.6% to -6.5%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -6.5% to -5.5%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) -6.0% -5.5% to -4.4%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) -4.4% to -3.4%: 15 occurrences (2.9%) -3.4% to -2.3%: 26 occurrences (5.0%) -2.9% -2.3% to -1.3%: 64 occurrences (12.3%) -1.3% to -0.2%: 96 occurrences (18.5%) -0.2% to +0.8%: 134 occurrences (25.8%) 0.3% +0.8% to +1.9%: 83 occurrences (16.0%) +1.9% to +2.9%: 44 occurrences (8.5%) +2.9% to +4.0%: 26 occurrences (5.0%) 3.5% +4.0% to +5.1%: 14 occurrences (2.7%) +5.1% to +6.1%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) +6.1% to +7.2%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) 6.6%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 3.7% 1.7% Model-free reality across 520 historical 2-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 4.6% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.28) and kurtosis (2.1).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 2.5% 1.3% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 2.3% 1.1% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (435 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 24.5%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 23.6%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 20.0%
  • Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent

2-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.2%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +2.8%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -2.2%
  • Max Historical Gain (2d): +7.2%
  • Max Historical Loss (2d): -9.7%